During last Sunday’s gut-wrenchingly close NFC Wild Card game, there was an audible exhalation when Terrence Williams seized Tony Romo’s end zone toss. After all, that catch gave Dallas their first lead of the game. Indeed, the raucous rumble of hysterical Cowboys’ fans might just have triggered this week’s series of earthquakes.
Thanks to that nail-biting win, the Dallas Cowboys take their unblemished road record to the Land of Cheese, inside legendary Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers have yet to lose.
The Green Bay Packers at a Glance
Led by QB Aaron Rodgers (4,381 yds, 38 TDs, 5 INTs), the Green Bay Packers have the eighth best passing offense in the NFL, averaging 266.3 yards per game.
This is due in no small measure to Rodgers’ two key targets, WRs Jordy Nelson (1,519 yds, 13 TDs) and Randall Cobb (1,287 yds, 12 TDs). The Packers’ offense also boasts a running back, Eddie Lacy, who is quite adept at receiving passes, catching 42 passes for 427 yds, with 4 TDs. WR Devante Adams (446 yds, 3 TDs) and TE Andrew Quarless (323 yds, 3 TDs) are two additional weapons at Rodgers’ disposal.
Despite the well-earned reputation of being a pass-first unit, the Packers run the ball very well. The aforementioned Lacy (1,139 yds, 9 TDs) headlines a Green Bay ground attack that has the 11th best rushing rate in the league, pumping out 119.8 yards per game.
On defense, the Packers do little to stop the running game, allowing 119.9 rushing ypg (23rd in the NFL). This presents a serious match-up issue for Green Bay.
The Cowboys have the second best rushing unit (147.1 ypg) and the NFL’s top rusher, DeMarco Murray (1,845 yds, 13 TDs). On the other hand, the Cowboys are well below average at stopping the pass, giving up 251.9 ypg – sixth worst in the league.
Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers: Two of the NFL’s Best
Despite trailing Tony Romo’s 113.2 passer rating (RAT) by one point, Rodgers has the NFL’s best interception to touchdown ratio, and it’s not even close—38 TDs compared to just 5 INTs. None of Rodgers’ five picks were thrown at Lambeau Field.
Tony Romo is having a renaissance year in terms of TD:INT ratio, as well. One glaring difference between him and Rodgers is that Romo has thrown nearly 100 fewer passes (435 vs 520). With just 9 INTs (and none in last week’s Wild Card win over Detroit), Romo has shown no signs of regression in the postseason.
One interesting note on Rodgers and Romo is how they move outside of the pocket. Romo had been a well-known threat to run, but multiple back surgeries have curtailed his rushing ability a good deal. On the flip side, Rodgers is quite an adept runner—he’s rushed for 269 yards on 43 carries (6.3 yards per carry), with two TDs. However, like Romo’s back, Rodgers’ balky ankle might limit his mobility considerably.
Final Analysis
Defense will not be the name of the game in this rematch of 1967’s classic Ice Bowl. The Cowboys’ defense has been a surprise all year, but they are banged up and, even when healthy, haven’t been sharp against the pass. The Packers are decent pass stoppers who can’t consistently stop the run.
Lambeau Field can’t win or lose games. But it certainly is a factor in favor of the Packers. That said, though the Packers are more acclimated to Green Bay’s wintry conditions, cold is cold and it isn’t ideal for either squad.
Rather than intangibles, this one is going to boil down to who can get the most out of their strengths. If Rodgers can hit his receivers with ease, and the Cowboys struggle to establish the run, then it could be Green Bay’s day. If DeMarco Murray—who managed 74 yds and one TD against a FAR superior run defense last week—can do his thing in the frigid weather, and the Cowboys get Rodgers out of rhythm, then it could be Dallas that punches through to their first NFC Championship game in 20 years.
Lifestyle Frisco prediction: Dallas Cowboys 31 Green Bay Packers 24