Chris Robbins is the guy that I follow the most. He goes into really great detail as to how he comes up with a forecast and he's very good at explaining it. For any of you wanting some additional insight, I'd suggest you bookmark the facebook page, a team updates the posts with the latest info during critical weather times. Great resource.
â— The supercells that form out west will tend to be high-precipitation (HP).
â— As the thunderstorms congeal, and move into North Texas (between 6 pm and 10 pm), rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour can be expected. Large hail will be possible, especially with the leading edge and with lead cells that form ahead of the advancing line. The chance of rain is near 100%.
â— I am forecasting 1 to 3 inches of rain (locally 4+ inches). Localized flooding will be possible.
â— Damaging winds are possible with any convective system, particularly one that is utilizing 4,000 Joules/kg of convective energy. In fact, I have been considering the potential for quasi-linear segments (bow echoes of various sizes) that can enhance the potential for sudden/intense downbursts.
â— For North Texas, I still believe the tornado threat is low, but non-zero. Itâ€™s quite possible, that a Tornado Watch will be issued at SPC discretion, and I certainly canâ€™t rule out an isolated tornado or two.
â— In summary, my main forecast concerns are: destructive winds from bowing segments and downbursts, areas of large hail (but I do expect hail sizes to come down as the large convective system organizes â€” we will have to monitor lead storms that form in advance).
^ Wow, welcome back to the CaptainMorgan Billboard. Had missed this guy for the past few days, thought he got kidnapped in scary Qatar or UAE. Back with a vengeance with name-calling galore. Hasn't missed a beat, in mid-season form. Y'all see it! A bad representation of Frisco Nice.