Hurricane Hype

#1
Just like the earthquake, if it happens on the East Coast, it's more hype than news:

"The storm cannot master its own strength."
Dr. Simon Atkins CEO, Advanced Forecasting Corporation [AFC]

August 26, 2011

The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

"North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds."

o The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.

o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.

o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.

o At Advanced Forecasting Corporation, we are concentrating on the surging waters which typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes. We have modeled the following predictions:

1) There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound. Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed. Flooding might occur in New York's Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain. There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.

2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.

o Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.
 
#3
Really? Hype? Is the only news worth reporting happen here in Texas? I think not. 29 million people are under the gun from this storm. Many people on FOL - I am sure - have family and friends in the storm's path. Have you ever experienced a hurricane head on? Probably not. Why not spend your energy praying for those that are impacted? Most of my family is in the storm's direct path so if I seem sensitive to the remark - I am!
 
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ashwi

Diamond Member
#4
Really? Hype? Is the only news worth reporting happen here in Texas? I think not. 29 million people are under the gun from this storm. Many people on FOL - I am sure - have family and friends in the storm's path. Have you ever experienced a hurricane head on? Probably not. Why not spend your energy praying for those that are impacted rather than spew your arrogant opinion? Most of my family is in the storm's direct path so if I seem sensitive to the ridiculous remark - I am! Is it more hype than news when a tornado rips through the South? I didn't think so....

Step off your pedestal.

Yes, I have been through multiple Hurricanes and Tropical Storms. You are more than welcome to call my Insurance Agent and property manager.

Sling and Patriot have met him.

You can pm them.
 

SixDegrees

Diamond Member
#5
Really? Hype? Is the only news worth reporting happen here in Texas? I think not. 29 million people are under the gun from this storm. Many people on FOL - I am sure - have family and friends in the storm's path. Have you ever experienced a hurricane head on? Probably not. Why not spend your energy praying for those that are impacted rather than spew your arrogant opinion? Most of my family is in the storm's direct path so if I seem sensitive to the ridiculous remark - I am! Is it more hype than news when a tornado rips through the South? I didn't think so....
I've met many hurricanes head on living 20+ years on the gulf coast. Yes there will be damage, but when it comes to down to numbers, I agree with the article. This is not a Rita (which did hit my home town head on) or Katrina or Gustav. The news media causes more damage by causing unneeded panic in exchange for ratings.
 
#9
No doubt - it is not a Rita or Katrina... The damage here will come from the storm surge. I do not disagree that the news does its best to make these events more than they are - as they do with most everything. I just have issue with using the term "hype" when it is still a dangerous situation for those in the path. Guess time will tell... I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope you are right.
 

SixDegrees

Diamond Member
#11
No doubt - it is not a Rita or Katrina... The damage here will come from the storm surge. I do not disagree that the news does its best to make these events more than they are - as they do with most everything. I just have issue with using the term "hype" when it is still a dangerous situation for those in the path. Guess time will tell... I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope you are right.
Comparing Irene to Katrina - which is what the news media is doing - hype, no matter which way you slice it. But if it will make you feel better then... "sensationalism" ;)

And claiming that the news media is hyping the story doesn't down play the danger and damage that Irene does pose.... it just shows the ongoing arrogance and the idiocy of the main stream news.
 
#12
No doubt - it is not a Rita or Katrina... The damage here will come from the storm surge. I do not disagree that the news does its best to make these events more than they are - as they do with most everything. I just have issue with using the term "hype" when it is still a dangerous situation for those in the path. Guess time will tell... I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope you are right.
I get what you're saying. I just think the media(/facebook posts lol)way over hyped the earthquake bc nothing happened really. A few lawn chairs lost their balance and some of the benadryl boxes at walgreens got a little tipsy and fell down, but ultimately, nothing really happened.

People do want to see the drama and the media knows that (regardless of how wrong that is) I truly do get what you're saying and I'm praying and looking up news by the hour. I hope all of your loved ones are safe and this is an over-hyped weather event :)
 
#13
Emilywood7 - point taken...

Comfortable - original reaction a bit harsh. Not too big to apologize!
I replied to your post. I get what you're saying. We are all passionate about our families. I know, like you said earlier, when a tornado is heading towers my family in the tiny town they call home, I freak bc they usually hit there more than big cities *I think. I hope your family is safe and we get to laugh about the hurricane bc it was insignificant! That would be great! :)
 
#15
It doesn't look to be a storm that will cause the massive damage that previously mentioned storms did, but if I was in its path I would err on the side of caution. If you have the means to take the necessary precautions, do so and protect your family.
 
#16
Have you ever experienced a hurricane head on? Probably not.
Lets see now, in no particular order.....

Betsy, Camille, Edith, Carmen, Babe, Bob, Danny, Juan, Bonnie, Florence, Andrew, Danny, Georges, Lili, Katrina, Rita

yes two hurricanes named Danny.

I see your point, not much hurricane experience here.
 
#17
I was living in Houston in 1983 when Hurricane Alicia blew through. I lost the roof off our office building and a nice boat in Clear Lake. It was a Category 3 with sustained winds of 115 mph when it came ashore. 21 people were killed and it was the first storm with over a billion dollars worh of damage.

Irene is weakening. From the NWS:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
 
#18
I was living in Houston in 1983 when Hurricane Alicia blew through. I lost the roof off our office building and a nice boat in Clear Lake. It was a Category 3 with sustained winds of 115 mph when it came ashore. 21 people were killed and it was the first storm with over a billion dollars worh of damage.

Irene is weakening. From the NWS:

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
Precisely
 
#19
Lets see now, in no particular order.....

Betsy, Camille, Edith, Carmen, Babe, Bob, Danny, Juan, Bonnie, Florence, Andrew, Danny, Georges, Lili, Katrina, Rita

yes two hurricanes named Danny.

I see your point, not much hurricane experience here.
If I could "thank" any of you through tapatalk, I would. It sucks. Sometimes.
 
#20
There was a comparison to Ike that devastated Galveston 3 years ago with regard to the size of Irene. The damage from Ike was more from the storm surge than the wind. Many people lost their lives because they didn't heed the warnings. I would rather the media "hype" these storms and have people safe when it's over than thousands of those living on the coasts die because no one made a "big deal" out of a hurricane.

Hurricanes are still very unpredictable so it's better to err on the side of caution than not. It could easily go back over the water and re-gather strength. Let's hope and pray that this storm does subside and doesn't cause the damage they predict.

Yes, maybe the earthquake wasn't such a big deal but in the small town ---Mineral, Virginia--- that was the epicenter there was damage to very old (historical) buildings. I doubt they have had time to repair these buildings prior to this storm coming and wind and rain can do further damage. I think that's sad because too many historical buildings are not preserved.